ABE Weekly: RBA Pauses Cash Rate Hikes - Australian Bond Exchange

Australian Bond Exchange Weekly Newsletter

Friday 7th April 2023

Source, Australian Bond Exchange

Key points:

The RBA paused its run of interest rate hikes, cash rate is 3.60 per cent (AUS)
The monthly CPI indicator rose 6.8 per cent in the twelve months to February (AUS)
Cash rate is 4.83 per cent (US)
Inflation has increased by 6 per cent from February 2022 to February 2023 (US)
Cash rate is 3.50 per cent (EU)
Headline inflation in the 20-member bloc came in at 6.9% in March, according to preliminary Eurostat figures released Friday.
Inflation is 9.2 per cent (UK).

Australia

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has paused its run of interest rate hikes; the cash rate is 3.60 per cent. It could be the case that the rate hikes have been enough to slow demand and make inflation decrease. However, we don’t know if the consumer will accept them and continue buying as if there is no tomorrow. According to the RBA, inflation remains high and broadly based, and it seems to have peaked at the end of 2022. We certainly hope so. The monthly CPI indicator rose 6.8 per cent in the twelve months to February. A higher cash rate will mean higher mortgage payments and higher rent payments if you are a tenant. A house, mortgage, and a dog might be an outdated model to live by anyway. So, suppose you don’t own a home yet. In that case, it might be a good time to look at alternative ways out of a 25-year mortgage, such as downsizing and buying a tiny house rather than a million-dollar home in Sydney or maybe even living in a boat.

United States (US)

The Fed kept the cash rate at 4.83 per cent. Regarding inflation, prices increased by 0.4 per cent in February 2023 and by 6 per cent if we compare February 2023 to 12 months before in February 2022. It might mean that you are having second thoughts about that exchange program in the US for your children, or that you are postponing holidays in the US.

European Union (EU)

The European Central Bank (ECB) cash rate is 3.50 per cent since March 22nd. Headline inflation in the EU came in at 6.9% in March, according to preliminary Eurostat figures released Friday. The decrease in inflation for March was due to falling energy prices. For you, it might mean postponing the opening of a branch of your company in Europe. In global terms, history is repeating itself with yet another war. As the conflict in Russia pushed energy prices upwards, countries worldwide felt the pain, and their economies weakened.

United Kingdom (UK)

The Bank of England (BOE) cash rate, is 4.25 per cent, and inflation is 9.2 per cent. To the UK families it means that “the cost of living nightmare is far from over. Millions are still living wage packet to wage packet.” (The Guardian, 2023). It might mean that you are thankful for living in Australia (The grass is not always greener on the other side); however, it might mean your children must postpone their gap year in the UK.

What does this mean for Investors?

The fact that there has been a recent slowdown in the consistent rate hikes around the world does not mean we have seen the end of the rate hike cycle. Being that rising inflation is yet to be curbed in a number of jurisdictions, there may still be a need to further raise interest rates. There are several opportunities in the corporate bond market at the moment for investors seeking exposure outside of the other asset classes.

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Disclaimer: The information and any advice provided in this newsletter has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs.  Because of that, you should, before acting on the advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to those things. You should obtain the relevant appropriate document for any product mentioned and consider its contents before making any decision.

References

Bank of England. (2023, March 23). What are interest rates? Retrieved March 05, 2023, from https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/explainers/what-are-interest-rates#:~:text=It%20is%20important%20because%20it,Bank%20Rate%20is%20currently%204.25%25.

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2023, April 04). Selected Interest Rates. Retrieved April 05, 2023, from https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/

CNN Business. (2023, March 31). Key inflation gauge in Europe hits record high even as overall price rises slow sharply. Retrieved April 05, 2023, from https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/31/business/europe-inflation/index.html

Eurostat. (2023, March 31). Inflation in the Euro Area. Retrieved April 05, 2023, from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Inflation_in_the_euro_area

Reserve Bank of Australia. (2023, April 05). Cash Rate Target. Australia. Retrieved April 05, 2023, from https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate/

The Economist. (2023, March 25). The Great Balancing Act.

The Guardian. (2023, March 31). Rising bills and tax hikes to make UK families hundreds of pounds worse off. Retrieved April 05, 2023, from https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/mar/31/rising-bills-and-tax-hikes-to-make-uk-families-hundreds-of-pounds-worse-off

The Guardian. (2023, April 05). The RBA has paused its record run of interest rate hikes. Relief may only be temporary. Australia. Retrieved April 05, 2023, from https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/apr/05/the-rba-has-paused-its-record-run-of-interest-rate-hikes-relief-may-only-be-temporary

US Bureau of Labor Statistics. (n.d.). Consumer Price Index. US. Retrieved April 05, 2023, from https://www.bls.gov/cpi/